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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud9loss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud9

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 37 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 25 games
76%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
DM · 20 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kataomi · 17 games
82%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fishman · 16 games
88%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
56%
Sven
Svensignature
Fishman · 16 games
63%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Fishman · 16 games
75%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 45 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 33 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 32 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 28 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
71%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 27 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 371 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
398 picks · 447 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 870 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
385 picks · 823 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 767 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 504 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 505 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
332 picks · 249 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:47
Cloud9 31%Team Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
61% · 83 games48% · 78 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Lina
LinaWatson
44% · 123 games53% · 73 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Underlord
UnderlordDM
42% · 55 games56% · 65 games
Monkey KingSkiter
Monkey King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinKataomi
47% · 51 game55% · 130 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFishman
51% · 187 games41% · 153 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct17:32
Cloud9 35%Team Falcons 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaWatson
46% · 75 games53% · 66 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Viper
ViperNo[o]ne
48% · 28 games52% · 44 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaDM
51% · 133 games48% · 49 games
Death ProphetATF
Death Prophet
Pudge
PudgeKataomi
50% · 52 games51% · 126 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Bane
BaneFishman
48% · 50 games50% · 53 games
EarthshakerCr1t-
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 82%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2