FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Tinysignature
Save- · 27 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
Svenoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
Doomoften banned
MieRo · 17 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 17 games
nouns
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 32 games
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 21 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
440 picks · 371 bans
Hoodwink
398 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 870 bans
Weaver
385 picks · 823 bans
Phoenix
370 picks · 767 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 504 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 505 bans
Jakiro
332 picks · 249 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:18
BETBOOM TEAM 60%nouns 40%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverNightfall
Chaos KnightYuma
Queen of PaingpK~
Monkey KingCopy
PangolierMieRo
Primal BeastGunnar
ChenTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow DemonLelis
GrimstrokeSave-
OmniknightFly
Game 2prediction correct28:7
BETBOOM TEAM 61%nouns 39%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 23:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNightfall
MorphlingYuma
PuckgpK~
Sand KingGunnar
LycanMieRo
Ember SpiritCopy
GrimstrokeSave-
Naga SirenFly
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
SniperLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 70%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2