CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
V1dar Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 22 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Kami · 18 games
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 17 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
Phoenixoften banned
Hduo · 16 games
Svensignature
V-Tune · 16 games
V1dar Gaming
Troll Warlordoften banned
dizzying · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Difference · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
Difference · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
439 picks · 371 bans
Hoodwink
398 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 870 bans
Weaver
384 picks · 823 bans
Phoenix
370 picks · 767 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 502 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 505 bans
Jakiro
332 picks · 249 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Night Pulse 83%V1dar Gaming 17%
The model gave 83% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 25:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverKami
Dragon Knightdizzying
Ember SpiritWorick
SlardarDifference
ViperTobi
Timbersawififall
SniperJANTER
BatriderGroom
ChenHduo
Game 2prediction correct28:6
Night Pulse 82%V1dar Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 23:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaKami
Bristlebackdizzying
Ember SpiritWorick
DazzleDifference
Vengeful SpiritTobi
Underlordififall
SnapfireJANTER
RubickGroom
Naga SirenHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 95%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2