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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 4 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
75%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 369 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
398 picks · 447 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 870 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 822 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
369 picks · 767 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 502 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 505 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
332 picks · 249 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:26
AVULUS 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 47:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinряф^^
48% · 135 games45% · 51 game
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerSmiling Knight
49% · 177 games52% · 228 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomXibbe
50% · 180 games52% · 248 games
Marspma
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSoNNeikO
51% · 155 games57% · 28 games
AbaddonRiddys
Abaddon
Batrider
BatriderEkki
51% · 277 games47% · 369 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed19:40
AVULUS 60%Natus Vincere Junior 40%
The model gave 60% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaSmiling Knight
56% · 135 games53% · 205 games
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritряф^^
50% · 260 games45% · 301 game
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
55% · 132 games46% · 178 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Alchemist
AlchemistEkki
52% · 148 games46% · 92 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
51% · 288 games45% · 187 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 3prediction correct27:18
AVULUS 61%Natus Vincere Junior 39%
The model gave 61% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 27:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
50% · 54 games44% · 123 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Puck
Puckряф^^
56% · 252 games47% · 284 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
56% · 128 games49% · 167 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
54% · 259 games43% · 99 games
MiranaDaze
Mirana
Tusk
TuskEkki
47% · 186 games53% · 206 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 64%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3