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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 20 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 20 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
53%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 40 games
60%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 37 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 27 games
63%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 26 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 25 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 370 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
399 picks · 447 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 874 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 823 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 501 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 505 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
332 picks · 249 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:6
nouns 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by nouns in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCopy
54% · 125 games51% · 69 games
Sand KingTopson
Sand King
Mirana
MiranaYuma
55% · 87 games47% · 226 games
WindrangerPure~
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierGunnar
51% · 320 games47% · 239 games
KunkkaRAMZES666
Kunkka
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
51% · 144 games47% · 224 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
55% · 233 games43% · 151 game
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct24:37
nouns 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainCopy
45% · 67 games46% · 58 games
BroodmotherPure~
Broodmother
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
56% · 237 games48% · 230 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Doom
DoomGunnar
47% · 180 games50% · 292 games
BatriderTopson
Batrider
Mirana
MiranaLelis
47% · 122 games50% · 190 games
Windranger9Class
Windranger
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
52% · 278 games56% · 114 games
Naga SirenWhitemon
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct12:29
nouns 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuma
47% · 64 games48% · 35 games
BristlebackPure~
Bristleback
Pudge
PudgeCopy
53% · 32 games42% · 62 games
Sand KingRAMZES666
Sand King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastGunnar
55% · 118 games50% · 151 game
PuckTopson
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerLelis
53% · 80 games25% · 4 games
Tinker9Class
Tinker
Naga Siren
Naga SirenFly
49% · 44 games54% · 86 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3