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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 27 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
78%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 26 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 26 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 43 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 33 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 32 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 28 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 28 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 26 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
437 picks · 370 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
401 picks · 449 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 875 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 827 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 504 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 505 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
330 picks · 248 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total70% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:36
Team Spirit 40%Team Falcons 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
54% · 187 games44% · 33 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
57% · 88 games42% · 151 game
WindrangerSkiter
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
55% · 169 games46% · 35 games
BroodmotherATF
Broodmother
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
61% · 25 games45% · 201 game
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Sniper
SniperMira
58% · 33 games43% · 82 games
Naga SirenSneyking
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction missed26:25
Team Spirit 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaYatoro
55% · 97 games49% · 117 games
LinaSkiter
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
48% · 219 games53% · 55 games
ViperMalr1ne
Viper
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
52% · 92 games48% · 264 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickMira
48% · 333 games54% · 67 games
Sand KingATF
Sand King
Bane
BaneMiposhka
46% · 43 games50% · 281 game
SvenSneyking
Sven
Game 3prediction missed31:8
Team Spirit 36%Team Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
43% · 101 game52% · 96 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
44% · 168 games59% · 46 games
ViperATF
Viper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
49% · 201 game64% · 82 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
48% · 73 games50% · 134 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
40% · 72 games54% · 257 games
SvenCr1t-
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3