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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
prblms · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
33%

AVULUS

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 5 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 4 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
75%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
437 picks · 370 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
401 picks · 449 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 876 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
385 picks · 828 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 508 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 505 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
329 picks · 248 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
DMS 30%AVULUS 70%
The model gave 70% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS.
Game 2prediction missed
DMS 30%AVULUS 70%
The model gave 70% on AVULUS — the game was taken by DMS.
Game 3prediction missed
DMS 30%AVULUS 70%
The model gave 70% on AVULUS — the game was taken by DMS.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 70%
Series resultDMS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3