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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 27 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 22 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 20 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 16 games
38%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 16 games
69%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
gpK~ · 16 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 40 games
60%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 37 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 27 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 27 games
48%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 26 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 25 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
437 picks · 370 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
401 picks · 449 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 876 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
385 picks · 828 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 508 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 505 bans
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
328 picks · 247 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:29
BETBOOM TEAM 47%Tundra Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetgpK~
42% · 111 games51% · 238 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Sven
SvenNightfall
50% · 162 games51% · 193 games
DoomRAMZES666
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingMieRo
48% · 58 games51% · 40 games
PudgeTopson
Pudge
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 237 games50% · 104 games
Naga SirenWhitemon
Naga Siren
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSave-
55% · 196 games51% · 189 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct15:23
BETBOOM TEAM 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNightfall
49% · 181 game52% · 56 games
BroodmotherPure~
Broodmother
Doom
DoomMieRo
52% · 159 games53% · 183 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
43% · 88 games53% · 183 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 189 games44% · 123 games
JakiroWhitemon
Jakiro
Medusa
MedusaSave-
48% · 51 game51% · 123 games
Leshrac9Class
Leshrac
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2