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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 22 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 22 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 21 game
76%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
tOfu · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 17 games
59%

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 21 game
48%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 20 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 20 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 368 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 449 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 876 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
387 picks · 828 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 508 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 506 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 642 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Gaimin Gladiators 69%nouns 31%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 21:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetQuinn
53% · 77 games49% · 167 games
Dragon KnightYuma
Dragon Knight
Broodmother
Broodmotherdyrachyo
39% · 33 games50% · 144 games
TimbersawGunnar
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordAce
56% · 52 games51% · 31 game
Sand KingCopy
Sand King
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
50% · 234 games47% · 91 game
MiranaLelis
Mirana
Sniper
SnipertOfu
52% · 53 games54% · 16 games
OmniknightFly
Omniknight
Game 2prediction missed13:28
Gaimin Gladiators 69%nouns 31%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by nouns in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherdyrachyo
45% · 21 game56% · 60 games
MiranaYuma
Mirana
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
39% · 112 games48% · 123 games
BeastmasterGunnar
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingAce
50% · 39 games63% · 43 games
EarthshakerCopy
Earthshaker
Leshrac
LeshractOfu
55% · 68 games53% · 72 games
GrimstrokeLelis
Grimstroke
Jakiro
JakiroSeleri
43% · 78 games57% · 20 games
OmniknightFly
Omniknight
Game 3prediction missed17:29
Gaimin Gladiators 70%nouns 30%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by nouns in 35:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
44% · 92 games56% · 60 games
AlchemistYuma
Alchemist
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
43% · 133 games50% · 76 games
Monkey KingCopy
Monkey King
Sniper
SniperQuinn
56% · 61 game49% · 137 games
DoomGunnar
Doom
Jakiro
JakiroSeleri
43% · 76 games51% · 137 games
Shadow DemonLelis
Shadow Demon
Earthshaker
EarthshakertOfu
61% · 89 games47% · 41 game
WarlockFly
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 85%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3