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CCT Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
DMSwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DMS

Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 4 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 4 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
prblms · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Daxak · 3 games
33%

Dragon Esports

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 8 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 7 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
14%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 369 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
406 picks · 451 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 879 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
387 picks · 830 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 514 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 506 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 642 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 25%
Hero pool strength57% DMS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
DMS 80%Dragon Esports 20%
The model gave 80% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Game 2prediction correct
DMS 80%Dragon Esports 20%
The model gave 80% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 80%
Series resultDMS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2