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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cloud9loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 26 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 26 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 26 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%

Cloud9

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 37 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
Fishman · 25 games
72%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
DM · 20 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fishman · 16 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Kataomi · 16 games
88%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Watson · 16 games
69%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Fishman · 16 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kataomi · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 369 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
411 picks · 456 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 880 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
388 picks · 832 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 522 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 508 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 639 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Cloud9
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:31
Team Spirit 67%Cloud9 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 57:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
47% · 132 games42% · 104 games
MiranaWatson
Mirana
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
45% · 320 games45% · 277 games
TinyNo[o]ne
Tiny
Sniper
SniperMira
63% · 66 games46% · 212 games
DoomDM
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
51% · 286 games57% · 131 game
LeshracKataomi
Leshrac
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
59% · 151 game46% · 231 game
SvenFishman
Sven
Game 2prediction correct31:15
Team Spirit 64%Cloud9 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
59% · 50 games53% · 60 games
ClinkzWatson
Clinkz
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLarl
46% · 132 games50% · 113 games
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Monkey King
Windranger
WindrangerYatoro
47% · 146 games48% · 309 games
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
50% · 220 games58% · 107 games
ChenFishman
Chen
Batrider
BatriderMira
49% · 228 games45% · 187 games
GrimstrokeKataomi
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2