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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
53%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Yuma · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 18 games
72%

PSG Quest

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malik · 27 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 19 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 368 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
418 picks · 461 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 879 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 837 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 533 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
341 picks · 510 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 634 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
nouns 37%PSG Quest 63%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCopy
52% · 116 games56% · 121 game
UrsaTA2000
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawGunnar
50% · 218 games50% · 68 games
Sand KingMalik
Sand King
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
47% · 283 games47% · 351 game
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
51% · 88 games54% · 319 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
RubickLelis
45% · 415 games49% · 261 game
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed25:7
nouns 38%PSG Quest 62%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by nouns in 25:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
49% · 195 games52% · 321 game
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaYuma
55% · 53 games56% · 49 games
Sand KingMalik
Sand King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCopy
50% · 89 games48% · 86 games
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Phantom Assassin
Windranger
WindrangerLelis
56% · 182 games43% · 104 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
49% · 159 games45% · 118 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed17:5
nouns 37%PSG Quest 63%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by nouns in 22:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
44% · 311 games45% · 151 game
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCopy
61% · 63 games52% · 108 games
EnigmaMalik
Enigma
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
51% · 332 games49% · 346 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaLelis
47% · 141 game57% · 79 games
MarciOmaR
Marci
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFly
51% · 94 games46% · 257 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 71%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3