FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LFLooking for Orgloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Malik · 28 games
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 27 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Malik · 18 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Parker · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Sacred · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Sacred · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
438 picks · 368 bans
Hoodwink
421 picks · 462 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 837 bans
Tiny
388 picks · 876 bans
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 534 bans
Clockwerk
342 picks · 510 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 630 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
PSG Quest 64%Looking for Org 36%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaTA2000
GyrocopterParker
Sand KingNo!ob
MarsDarkMago
DoomMalik
Death ProphetSacred
SnapfireOmaR
ClockwerkYadomi
Treant ProtectorDukalis
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Game 2prediction missed16:28
PSG Quest 64%Looking for Org 36%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritTA2000
GyrocopterParker
EarthshakerNo!ob
Sand KingDarkMago
Primal BeastMalik
Night StalkerSacred
RubickOmaR
Shadow DemonMatthew
JakiroDukalis
Crystal MaidenYadomi
Game 3prediction correct46:26
PSG Quest 63%Looking for Org 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:05:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNo!ob
GyrocopterParker
Void SpiritTA2000
MarsDarkMago
DawnbreakerMalik
TidehunterSacred
SnapfireOmaR
Crystal MaidenYadomi
EnchantressDukalis
Shadow DemonMatthew
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 77%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3