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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Q · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 5 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
53%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Yuma · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
437 picks · 368 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
421 picks · 462 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 838 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 876 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 535 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
341 picks · 510 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 629 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:28
Aurora Gaming 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by nouns in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spirit23savage
42% · 84 games50% · 166 games
BeastmasterGunnar
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
49% · 218 games51% · 117 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
55% · 261 game51% · 221 game
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireQ
44% · 160 games56% · 198 games
Shadow DemonFly
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroOli
48% · 171 game53% · 192 games
WindrangerLelis
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed27:36
Aurora Gaming 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by nouns in 54:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa23savage
48% · 116 games55% · 119 games
AlchemistYuma
Alchemist
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
42% · 47 games58% · 215 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
44% · 350 games48% · 245 games
TimbersawGunnar
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickQ
47% · 389 games53% · 354 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
46% · 273 games59% · 242 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 64%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2