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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Looking for Orgwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Looking for Org

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Matthew · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
0%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 47 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 41 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Ulnit · 23 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
435 picks · 366 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
423 picks · 461 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 838 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 872 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 535 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 509 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 623 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength61% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:18
Looking for Org 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingParker
59% · 84 games46% · 261 game
MorphlingUlnit
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
52% · 152 games43% · 53 games
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSacred
49% · 63 games53% · 119 games
Nature's ProphetNARMAN
Nature's Prophet
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYadomi
52% · 179 games50% · 193 games
DoomForce
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
47% · 215 games46% · 67 games
Marcibengan
Marci
Game 2prediction correct35:34
Looking for Org 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingParker
51% · 95 games44% · 87 games
LinaUlnit
Lina
Doom
DoomSacred
55% · 194 games49% · 283 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Mars
MarsDarkMago
47% · 214 games58% · 98 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Omniknight
OmniknightYadomi
54% · 23 games46% · 142 games
MorphlingNARMAN
Morphling
Lion
LionMatthew
54% · 170 games45% · 86 games
Tuskbengan
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 56%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2