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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 25 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 18 games
72%
Sven
Svensignature
Yuma · 18 games
61%

G2 Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
434 picks · 367 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 461 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 837 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 870 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
371 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 533 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 620 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:27
nouns 37%G2 Invictus Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 45:34.
Game 2prediction missed21:8
nouns 37%G2 Invictus Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by nouns in 39:54.
Game 3prediction correct16:40
nouns 37%G2 Invictus Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 34:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 63%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3