Aurora Gaming vs Looking for Org — prediction FUE 3 · Dota 2

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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3

result vs prediction

Aurora Gamingwin 2:0

series probability

70%30%

probability at match start · final 2:0

LFLooking for Orgloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopteroften banned

23savage · 7 games

43%

Brewmasteroften banned

Jabz · 5 games

60%

Clockwerkoften banned

Q · 5 games

80%

Crystal Maiden

Oli · 5 games

60%

Elder Titan

Oli · 5 games

60%

Snapfireoften banned

Q · 5 games

60%

Beastmasteroften banned

Jabz · 4 games

75%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Lorenof · 4 games

50%

Looking for Org

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

434 picks · 367 bans

52%

Hoodwink

424 picks · 461 bans

53%

Weaver

389 picks · 837 bans

55%

Tiny

386 picks · 870 bans

54%

Phoenix

371 picks · 768 bans

50%

Pangolier

362 picks · 533 bans

48%

Clockwerk

338 picks · 508 bans

56%

Ember Spirit

323 picks · 620 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%

Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total70% Aurora Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct29:22

Aurora Gaming 62%Looking for Org 38%

The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 44:50.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo