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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 47 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 41 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Ulnit · 23 games
39%

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 32 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 26 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
434 picks · 368 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 462 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
390 picks · 837 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 868 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 531 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 617 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:29
MOUZ 31%1w Team 69%
The model gave 69% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendUlnit
46% · 37 games56% · 111 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
57% · 103 games57% · 20 games
HuskarChira JUNIOR
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
48% · 95 games53% · 96 games
Sand KingCloud
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
43% · 122 games47% · 112 games
Leshracswedenstrong
Leshrac
Marci
Marcibengan
44% · 41 game50% · 59 games
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct22:36
MOUZ 33%1w Team 67%
The model gave 67% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzUlnit
62% · 24 games44% · 100 games
LinaMunkushi~
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
48% · 179 games49% · 123 games
Leshracswedenstrong
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierForce
49% · 235 games42% · 74 games
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Void Spirit
Marci
MarciNARMAN
51% · 64 games53% · 184 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Jakiro
Jakirobengan
47% · 64 games63% · 85 games
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 81%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2