PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Dandelionsloss 0:3series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:3
AVULUSwin 3:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
AVULUS
Enigmaoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Huskaroften banned
Ekki · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
435 picks · 366 bans
Hoodwink
425 picks · 460 bans
Weaver
391 picks · 839 bans
Tiny
385 picks · 868 bans
Phoenix
370 picks · 766 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 533 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:19
Dandelions 39%AVULUS 61%
The model gave 61% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 45:48.
Game 2prediction correct16:28
Dandelions 39%AVULUS 61%
The model gave 61% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:23.
Game 3prediction correct18:9
Dandelions 39%AVULUS 61%
The model gave 61% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 61%
Series resultAVULUS 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3