Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 29 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 29 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 29 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 23 games
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 18 games
Techies
kreker · 17 games
Level UP
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 15 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 14 games
Windranger
queezy · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 10 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 8 games
Spectreoften banned
WoE · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
493 picks · 365 bans
Clockwerk
363 picks · 648 bans
Rubick
344 picks · 193 bans
Bane
339 picks · 384 bans
Tiny
318 picks · 346 bans
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 448 bans
Windranger
307 picks · 231 bans
Snapfire
297 picks · 427 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total75% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 25%Level UP 75%
The model gave 75% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP.
Game 2prediction missed36:20
Team Lynx 35%Level UP 65%
The model gave 65% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
TidehunterBb3px
Earth Spiritmellojul
Void SpiritAinkrad
HoodwinkQBFY
SlarkWoE
Undyingkreker
Miranaqueezy
53% · 215 games
BaneHtrd
Game 3prediction correct36:43
Team Lynx 34%Level UP 66%
The model gave 66% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 50:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
BloodseekerWoE
Earth Spiritmellojul
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Undyingkreker
TidehunterBb3px
Dark WillowQBFY
Hoodwinkqueezy
49% · 34 games
Witch DoctorHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 75%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3