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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circlewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 9 games
22%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 9 games
22%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirele · 8 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 8 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
prblms · 7 games
57%

Inner Circle

Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 23 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 21 game
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
niche · 18 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
41%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
601 picks · 371 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 579 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
492 picks · 267 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 387 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
404 picks · 558 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 922 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 855 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
329 picks · 279 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Inner Circle
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% MODUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:45
MODUS 52%Inner Circle 48%
The model gave 52% on MODUS — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 1:17:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirele
48% · 300 games49% · 201 game
SnapfireStojkov
Snapfire
Underlord
Underlordelmo^^
50% · 188 games48% · 175 games
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerbottega
61% · 52 games48% · 106 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Rubick
Rubickprblms
56% · 144 games45% · 136 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Lich
Lichkasane
42% · 52 games54% · 118 games
Treant ProtectorSe
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct37:20
MODUS 52%Inner Circle 48%
The model gave 52% on MODUS — the game was taken by MODUS in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezbottega
49% · 161 game41% · 125 games
Terrorblade423
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
57% · 392 games54% · 134 games
Snapfirelaise
Snapfire
Largo
Largoelmo^^
48% · 115 games47% · 186 games
SlardarStojkov
Slardar
Lion
Lionprblms
51% · 143 games53% · 334 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorkasane
55% · 30 games44% · 62 games
LichSe
Lich
Game 3prediction missed29:25
MODUS 53%Inner Circle 47%
The model gave 53% on MODUS — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 1:18:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybottega
51% · 389 games46% · 240 games
Kez423
Kez
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
46% · 357 games51% · 198 games
Monkey KingStojkov
Monkey King
Largo
Largoelmo^^
56% · 149 games44% · 342 games
PhoenixSe
Phoenix
Windranger
Windrangerprblms
59% · 249 games42% · 266 games
Axelaise
Axe
Bane
Banekasane
58% · 157 games47% · 255 games
RubickFernans
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteMODUS · 53%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3