PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs predictionSskem&friendsloss 1:3
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Blacklist Internationalwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
skem&friends
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 3 games
Jakiro
Skem · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Skem · 2 games
Linaoften banned
flyfly · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Jing · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
zeal · 2 games
Tusk
Jing · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
flyfly · 1 game
Blacklist International
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Jaunuel · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 5 games
Jakiro
Jaunuel · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
433 picks · 365 bans
Hoodwink
419 picks · 461 bans
Weaver
390 picks · 838 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
369 picks · 765 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 532 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 611 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% skem&friends
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:34
skem&friends 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 52:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linaflyfly
Dragon KnightNatsumi
DazzleYowe
HoodwinkTims
Brewmasterzeal
Sand KingRaven
Dark WillowJing
Ember SpiritMac
Naga SirenSkem
MiranaJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct32:6
skem&friends 50%Blacklist International 50%
The model gave 50% on skem&friends — the game was taken by skem&friends in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverflyfly
Ember SpiritMac
InvokerYowe
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Kunkkazeal
BrewmasterRaven
MarciJing
TinkerJaunuel
JakiroSkem
HoodwinkTims
Game 3prediction correct10:25
skem&friends 50%Blacklist International 50%
The model gave 50% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinflyfly
SvenNatsumi
InvokerYowe
Sand KingMac
Pangolierzeal
BrewmasterRaven
ChenSkem
Shadow DemonTims
ClockwerkJing
MiranaJaunuel
Game 4prediction correct16:33
skem&friends 48%Blacklist International 52%
The model gave 52% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenflyfly
AlchemistNatsumi
LeshracYowe
DoomRaven
Kunkkazeal
PangolierMac
MuertaJing
HoodwinkTims
Shadow DemonSkem
MiranaJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 55%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 4