PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legacyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Legacy
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
FCR · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Hyko · 1 game
Disruptoroften banned
Gardick · 1 game
Hoodwinkoften banned
Hyko · 1 game
Jakiro
Gardick · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Lumière · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
434 picks · 364 bans
Hoodwink
420 picks · 459 bans
Weaver
390 picks · 838 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
371 picks · 765 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 532 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 610 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:5
beastcoast 66%Legacy 34%
The model gave 66% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Legacy in 27:12.
Game 2prediction correct
beastcoast 66%Legacy 34%
The model gave 66% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 66%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2