?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 3:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:1
asdfloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apex Genesis

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BliNcc · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%

asdf

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
434 picks · 364 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
420 picks · 459 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
390 picks · 838 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
384 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
371 picks · 765 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 532 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 610 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Apex Genesis 68%asdf 32%
The model gave 68% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Game 2prediction missed
Apex Genesis 68%asdf 32%
The model gave 68% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by asdf.
Game 3prediction correct
Apex Genesis 68%asdf 32%
The model gave 68% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Game 4prediction correct
Apex Genesis 68%asdf 32%
The model gave 68% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 68%
Series resultApex Genesis 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4