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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Legacywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
555k · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Genek · 6 games
17%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
60%
Sven
Svenoften banned
DaaD- · 5 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Genek · 5 games
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 5 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
25%

Legacy

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
FCR · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hyko · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Gardick · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Gardick · 1 game
100%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Hyko · 1 game
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Lumière · 1 game
100%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
FCR · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
434 picks · 363 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
419 picks · 458 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
390 picks · 837 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 867 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
369 picks · 765 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
359 picks · 531 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 508 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 609 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:34
Lava 50%Legacy 50%
The model gave 50% on Lava — the game was taken by Legacy in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightDaaD-
56% · 95 games52% · 61 game
AlchemistLumière
Alchemist
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAdrx
56% · 50 games53% · 80 games
MagnusFCR
Magnus
Tiny
TinyPamplona
53% · 299 games48% · 233 games
HoodwinkHyko
Hoodwink
Jakiro
Jakiro555k
47% · 116 games38% · 186 games
PhoenixGardick
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct34:29
Lava 50%Legacy 50%
The model gave 50% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingDaaD-
64% · 73 games46% · 87 games
LinaLumière
Lina
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAdrx
52% · 209 games45% · 333 games
PangolierFCR
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixPamplona
46% · 246 games43% · 104 games
PugnaGardick
Pugna
Clockwerk
Clockwerk555k
52% · 121 game56% · 125 games
MarciHyko
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 51%
Series resultLegacy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2