PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AVULUS
Primal Beastoften banned
Stormstormer · 4 games
Enigmaoften banned
Xibbe · 3 games
Huskaroften banned
Ekki · 3 games
Tusk
Ekki · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 1 game
OG
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 40 games
Rubick
Ari · 33 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 31 game
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
Phoenixsignature
Ceb · 24 games
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
bzm · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
433 picks · 363 bans
Hoodwink
418 picks · 458 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 837 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 864 bans
Phoenix
368 picks · 764 bans
Pangolier
359 picks · 532 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 511 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 606 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
AVULUS 31%OG 69%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
LifestealerTimado
PuckStormstormer
BeastmasterWisper
BatriderEkki
Ember Spiritbzm
BrewmasterXibbe
Shadow DemonKaori
PhoenixSoNNeikO
HoodwinkAri
Game 2prediction missed29:12
AVULUS 34%OG 66%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by AVULUS in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerSmiling Knight
SlarkTimado
PuckStormstormer
Void Spiritbzm
UnderlordXibbe
Primal BeastWisper
EnchantressEkki
JakiroKaori
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
TuskAri
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 80%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2