PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportsloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cuyes Esports
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 10 games
Jakiro
Mjz · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Underlordoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
Broodmotheroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
432 picks · 362 bans
Hoodwink
418 picks · 458 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 836 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 864 bans
Phoenix
367 picks · 764 bans
Pangolier
358 picks · 531 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 511 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 604 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Cuyes Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:27
Cuyes Esports 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 36:31.
Game 2prediction missed21:30
Cuyes Esports 58%beastcoast 42%
The model gave 58% on Cuyes Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 32:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteCuyes Esports · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2