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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 7 games
14%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Fernans · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 6 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fernans · 5 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Fernans · 5 games
80%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
60%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 24 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 23 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Panto · 18 games
72%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
432 picks · 362 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
418 picks · 458 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
392 picks · 836 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 864 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
367 picks · 764 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 531 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
337 picks · 511 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 604 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Passion UA 24%HULIGANI 76%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Game 2prediction correct
Passion UA 24%HULIGANI 76%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 76%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2