PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Rubick
Shishak · 17 games
Batridersignature
Puppey · 16 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
Lifestealersignature
Crystallis · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
431 picks · 361 bans
Hoodwink
418 picks · 459 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 837 bans
Tiny
382 picks · 865 bans
Phoenix
367 picks · 762 bans
Pangolier
358 picks · 535 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 511 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 603 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
Dandelions 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:55.
Game 2prediction correct35:14
Dandelions 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 31:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 55%
Series resultDandelions 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2