PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Azure Raywin 3:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Zeroloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Tinyoften banned
fy · 32 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
Razoroften banned
Ori · 18 games
Shadow Shaman
fy · 16 games
Clockwerkoften banned
fy · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 15 games
Lifestealersignature
lou · 15 games
Team Zero
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 13 games
Miranasignature
zzq · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
7e · 13 games
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 11 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
7e · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
zzq · 10 games
Lionsignature
Ponlo · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
428 picks · 358 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 455 bans
Weaver
391 picks · 833 bans
Tiny
382 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 758 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 526 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 507 bans
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 596 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Team Zero
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total65% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:25
Azure Ray 56%Team Zero 44%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Zero in 25:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightlou
Windrangerpoyoyo
Primal BeastFaith_bian
Timbersaw7e
TuskpLAnet
KunkkaBEYOND
WarlockFantasy
Svenzzq
49% · 162 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Game 2prediction correct24:19
Azure Ray 54%Team Zero 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linalou
Dragon Knightpoyoyo
UnderlordFaith_bian
Primal BeastBEYOND
MiranapLAnet
Ember Spirit7e
SvenFantasy
RubickPonlo
43% · 146 games
Phoenixzzq
Game 3prediction correct19:6
Azure Ray 57%Team Zero 43%
The model gave 57% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinglou
Juggernautpoyoyo
BrewmasterFaith_bian
KunkkaBEYOND
MiranapLAnet
Timbersaw7e
Shadow DemonFantasy
WindrangerPonlo
50% · 276 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Game 4prediction correct28:17
Azure Ray 56%Team Zero 44%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinglou
Muertapoyoyo
WindrangerpLAnet
Earth Spirit7e
MarciFaith_bian
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Elder TitanFantasy
Phoenixzzq
52% · 248 games
RubickPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 65%
Series resultAzure Ray 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4