PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBBruv123win 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bruv123
Batrideroften banned
Se · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Se · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 1 game
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
427 picks · 359 bans
Hoodwink
414 picks · 452 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 832 bans
Tiny
383 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 757 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 524 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 506 bans
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Bruv123
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Bruv123
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:6
Bruv123 55%Yangon Galacticos 45%
The model gave 55% on Bruv123 — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 21:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightPalos
MorphlingKsh
Ember SpiritBob
PangolierYoung PH
Windrangerseimei
Crystal MaidenSe
Game 2prediction missed16:31
Bruv123 53%Yangon Galacticos 47%
The model gave 53% on Bruv123 — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendBob
WeaverKsh
MuertaPalos
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Brewmasterseimei
TuskSe
Game 3prediction correct38:8
Bruv123 52%Yangon Galacticos 48%
The model gave 52% on Bruv123 — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightPalos
Troll WarlordKsh
Pangolierseimei
InvokerYoung PH
Ember SpiritBob
OracleSe
Model check result
Model favoriteBruv123 · 58%
Series resultBruv123 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3