PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
GRIN esports
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
Marssignature
Moo · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Moo · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Moo · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
426 picks · 356 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 452 bans
Weaver
388 picks · 832 bans
Tiny
382 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 757 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 522 bans
Clockwerk
337 picks · 506 bans
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total61% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Apex Genesis 61%GRIN esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaSammyboy
AxeMoo
Death ProphetW1sh-
EnigmaFayde
Crystal MaidenYamSun
MarciBignum
Game 2prediction correct22:24
Apex Genesis 56%GRIN esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 43:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSammyboy
Dark SeerMoo
Queen of PainW1sh-
EnigmaFayde
TinyBignum
Crystal MaidenYamSun
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 61%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2