PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTHThe Hutloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aasdfwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Hut
Hoodwinkoften banned
bgod · 4 games
Dark Willowoften banned
bgod · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
bgod · 3 games
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 2 games
Rubick
bgod · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
bgod · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
RRL · 1 game
Grimstroke
bgod · 1 game
asdf
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
424 picks · 355 bans
Hoodwink
411 picks · 452 bans
Weaver
388 picks · 830 bans
Tiny
380 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
365 picks · 753 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 520 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 505 bans
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% The Hut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% The Hut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:24
The Hut 61%asdf 39%
The model gave 61% on The Hut — the game was taken by asdf in 41:05.
Game 2prediction missed25:10
The Hut 61%asdf 39%
The model gave 61% on The Hut — the game was taken by asdf in 26:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Hut · 61%
Series resultasdf 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2