PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fusionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Fusion
Hoodwinkoften banned
Michael · 6 games
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 4 games
Svenoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Jakiro
Michael · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Snapfireoften banned
Michael · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
419 picks · 353 bans
Hoodwink
409 picks · 451 bans
Weaver
387 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
380 picks · 869 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 750 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 517 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 503 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 578 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 23%
Hero pool strength58% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:30
beastcoast 82%Fusion 18%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Fusion in 54:03.
Game 2prediction missed35:12
beastcoast 82%Fusion 18%
The model gave 82% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Fusion in 25:37.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 82%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2