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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Trouble Makers Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 46 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 40 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 40 games
63%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 33 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Ulnit · 23 games
39%

Trouble Makers Reborn

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
417 picks · 350 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 450 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 828 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
379 picks · 872 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
358 picks · 749 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 516 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
332 picks · 502 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 571 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:3
MOUZ 69%Trouble Makers Reborn 31%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 17:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomForce
45% · 52 games53% · 274 games
Primal BeastMr. Luck
Primal Beast
Lina
LinaUlnit
37% · 23 games
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
51% · 65 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
40% · 80 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkbengan
62% · 54 games
Game 2prediction correct23:19
MOUZ 68%Trouble Makers Reborn 32%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaUlnit
62% · 9 games55% · 92 games
EnigmaMr. Luck
Enigma
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
33% · 23 games
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
63% · 4 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
54% · 33 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkbengan
33% · 23 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 84%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2