PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBruv123loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
Hoodwinkoften banned
Tims · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Jaunuel · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
Bruv123
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Se · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Se · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Svenoften banned
Palos · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
Palos · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
415 picks · 350 bans
Hoodwink
409 picks · 450 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
379 picks · 871 bans
Phoenix
358 picks · 747 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
331 picks · 502 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 568 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Bruv123
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:20
Blacklist International 59%Bruv123 41%
The model gave 59% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 52:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenNatsumi
GyrocopterPalos
PangolierMac
PuckBob
Dark SeerRaven
Centaur Warrunnerseimei
Shadow DemonJaunuel
WarlockSe
Nyx AssassinTims
Game 2prediction missed20:34
Blacklist International 59%Bruv123 41%
The model gave 59% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistNatsumi
LinaBob
Sand KingMac
Chaos KnightPalos
UnderlordRaven
Brewmasterseimei
Shadow DemonJaunuel
BatriderSe
MiranaTims
Game 3prediction correct49:30
Blacklist International 59%Bruv123 41%
The model gave 59% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 1:25:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNatsumi
Chaos KnightPalos
LeshracMac
Underlordseimei
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
Storm SpiritBob
Shadow DemonTims
BatriderSe
RubickJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 69%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3