Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NHNo Hoodwinkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstroke
Aidar · 21 game
Lion
Aidar · 16 games
Kunkka
86 · 13 games
Largooften banned
86 · 12 games
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 11 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 11 games
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
Centaur Warrunner
kae · 9 games
No Hoodwink
Lion
Katari_ · 4 games
Mirana
Katari_ · 4 games
Winter Wyvern
asdekor_r · 4 games
Baneoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Broodmother
mangekyou · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 3 games
Enchantress
asdekor_r · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
re1bl · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 364 bans
Clockwerk
363 picks · 649 bans
Rubick
347 picks · 194 bans
Bane
337 picks · 383 bans
Tiny
321 picks · 347 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 450 bans
Windranger
307 picks · 232 bans
Snapfire
297 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% No Hoodwink
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% No Hoodwink
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:19
Team Spirit Academy 45%No Hoodwink 55%
The model gave 55% on No Hoodwink — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batriderkae
Linarubikon155
Earth Spirit86
Enigmamangekyou
OracleAidar
Ember Spiritre1bl
47% · 23 games
Lichasdekor_r
53% · 69 games
Dark WillowKatari_
Game 2prediction missed42:34
Team Spirit Academy 47%No Hoodwink 53%
The model gave 53% on No Hoodwink — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka86
Beastmasterrubikon155
Batriderkae
Storm Spiritre1bl
GrimstrokeAidar
Necrophosmangekyou
37% · 39 games
Undyingasdekor_r
57% · 50 games
LionKatari_
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Hoodwink · 54%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2