PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
THThe Hutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
The Hut
Hoodwinkoften banned
bgod · 4 games
Dark Willowoften banned
bgod · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
bgod · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 2 games
Clinkz
bgod · 1 game
Grimstroke
bgod · 1 game
Rubick
bgod · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
411 picks · 348 bans
Hoodwink
408 picks · 447 bans
Weaver
386 picks · 827 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 871 bans
Phoenix
358 picks · 741 bans
Pangolier
341 picks · 510 bans
Clockwerk
328 picks · 499 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 558 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% The Hut
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:3
Apex Genesis 57%The Hut 43%
The model gave 57% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 22:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSammyboy
Dragon KnightRRL
Queen of PainW1sh-
Nyx Assassinbgod
MarsFayde
Shadow Demonempyrean5
TinkerBignum
Crystal MaidenYamSun
Game 2prediction correct34:19
Apex Genesis 57%The Hut 43%
The model gave 57% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinW1sh-
ZeusRRL
WindrangerSammyboy
Rubickbgod
TimbersawFayde
Treant Protectorempyrean5
Crystal MaidenYamSun
SnapfireBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 66%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2