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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 20 games
60%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
Q · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 17 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%

Amaru Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Gardick · 9 games
33%
Kez
Kezsignature
Wits · 9 games
78%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 8 games
50%
Axe
Axesignature
Oscar · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 7 games
29%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
598 picks · 365 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
490 picks · 579 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
484 picks · 261 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 386 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
403 picks · 550 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 910 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 843 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
324 picks · 276 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:28
Team Nemesis 47%Amaru Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 58:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyrubikon155
51% · 355 games49% · 227 games
AbaddonK1
Abaddon
Sniper
Sniper4nalog
45% · 59 games51% · 349 games
SnapfirePiPi
Snapfire
Axe
AxeJabz
44% · 240 games55% · 365 games
BeastmasterOscar
Beastmaster
Silencer
SilencerYamSun
49% · 178 games46% · 321 game
RubickGenek
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
49% · 649 games59% · 219 games
BanePanda
Bane
Game 2prediction missed37:27
Team Nemesis 48%Amaru Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 50:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puck4nalog
53% · 612 games45% · 227 games
UrsaK1
Ursa
Tiny
Tinyrubikon155
53% · 442 games48% · 476 games
Void SpiritPiPi
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomJabz
50% · 212 games51% · 234 games
UnderlordOscar
Underlord
Lich
LichYamSun
49% · 75 games49% · 167 games
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
49% · 219 games53% · 456 games
HoodwinkGenek
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 58%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2