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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vrooomy.ioloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 21 game
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
JANTER · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Kami · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 15 games
60%
Sven
Svensignature
V-Tune · 15 games
67%

Vrooomy.io

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
406 picks · 446 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
406 picks · 344 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
385 picks · 824 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 872 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
357 picks · 736 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 515 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
327 picks · 497 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 548 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Night Pulse 77%Vrooomy.io 23%
The model gave 77% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Game 2prediction missed
Night Pulse 77%Vrooomy.io 23%
The model gave 77% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Vrooomy.io.
Game 3prediction correct
Night Pulse 77%Vrooomy.io 23%
The model gave 77% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 77%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3