PRISM Esports vs skem&friends — prediction PWS2ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

PRISM Esportsloss 0:2

series probability

25%75%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Sskem&friendswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PRISM Esports

Brewmasteroften banned

seimei · 2 games

50%

Ursaoften banned

423 · 2 games

50%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

seimei · 1 game

100%

Dragon Knightoften banned

Bob · 1 game

100%

Earth Spiritoften banned

Bob · 1 game

Lycanoften banned

423 · 1 game

Razoroften banned

423 · 1 game

100%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Bob · 1 game

100%

skem&friends

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

406 picks · 446 bans

53%

Rubick

406 picks · 342 bans

51%

Weaver

384 picks · 824 bans

54%

Tiny

377 picks · 871 bans

54%

Phoenix

357 picks · 736 bans

50%

Pangolier

337 picks · 514 bans

47%

Clockwerk

327 picks · 496 bans

56%

Dark Seer

295 picks · 673 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%

Hero pool strength51% PRISM Esports

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total75% skem&friends

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct8:26

PRISM Esports 36%skem&friends 64%

The model gave 64% on skem&friends — the game was taken by skem&friends in 29:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo