PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Elder Titansignature
cml · 13 games
Razoroften banned
Abat · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
cml · 11 games
Marcisignature
Tino- · 11 games
Rubicksignature
Shanks · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Abat · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 10 games
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 10 games
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorblade
Ksh · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
404 picks · 446 bans
Rubick
404 picks · 341 bans
Weaver
383 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
377 picks · 871 bans
Phoenix
357 picks · 733 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 511 bans
Clockwerk
326 picks · 496 bans
Dark Seer
293 picks · 673 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Execration 60%Yangon Galacticos 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 32:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterTino-
MorphlingKsh
Visagecml
Storm SpiritYoung PH
RubickShanks
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Execration 61%Yangon Galacticos 39%
The model gave 61% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterTino-
Troll WarlordKsh
RubickShanks
Keeper of the LightYoung PH
Pugnacml
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 71%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2