EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TJTeam Jenzloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
egx · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 10 games
Dark Willow
Zayac · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Kami · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 8 games
Tinysignature
chempik · 8 games
Team Jenz
Linasignature
No!ob · 6 games
Snapfireoften banned
No!ob · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
Luna
Parker · 5 games
Ringmaster
Jing · 5 games
Shadow Demon
Jing · 4 games
Tusk
Yadomi · 4 games
Baneoften banned
islA · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 364 bans
Clockwerk
363 picks · 649 bans
Rubick
347 picks · 194 bans
Bane
337 picks · 383 bans
Tiny
321 picks · 347 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 450 bans
Windranger
307 picks · 232 bans
Snapfire
297 picks · 425 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Jenz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:24
Ilbirs eSports 52%Team Jenz 48%
The model gave 52% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez423
Storm SpiritMagE-
Ember Spiritniche
BaneislA
UndyingNorma
RubickFernans
Winter WyvernPonlo
Game 2prediction correct54:62
Ilbirs eSports 53%Team Jenz 47%
The model gave 53% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 51:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNorma
Ember SpiritMagE-
Io423
BaneislA
Slarkniche
BatriderFernans
UndyingPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 53%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2