?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%

Winter Bear

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 6 games
17%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Jeezy · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
ArrOw · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
33%
Sven
Sven
layme · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
407 picks · 446 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
404 picks · 332 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
384 picks · 821 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 878 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
357 picks · 723 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 513 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
330 picks · 491 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 543 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:18
One Move 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 39:16.
Game 2prediction correct39:12
One Move 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 28:22.
Game 3prediction correct9:39
One Move 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 36:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 57%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3