PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Monteloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Hryvniawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monte
Rubick
QBFY · 14 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 12 games
Brewmasteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
407 picks · 446 bans
Rubick
404 picks · 332 bans
Weaver
384 picks · 821 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
357 picks · 723 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
330 picks · 491 bans
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% Monte
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:28
Monte 52%Team Hryvnia 48%
The model gave 52% on Monte — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 35:24.
Game 2prediction missed26:33
Monte 52%Team Hryvnia 48%
The model gave 52% on Monte — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 40:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonte · 52%
Series resultTeam Hryvnia 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2