PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Essenceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorblade
Ksh · 2 games
Team Essence
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
407 picks · 445 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 331 bans
Weaver
386 picks · 822 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
359 picks · 721 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
332 picks · 491 bans
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Essence
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Yangon Galacticos 70%Team Essence 30%
The model gave 70% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos.
Game 2prediction correct18:47
Yangon Galacticos 70%Team Essence 30%
The model gave 70% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 40:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 70%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2