PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSPSF Pos 4win 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MANTA Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SF Pos 4
No games played over 6 months.
MANTA Esports
Marsoften banned
Kimizu · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
407 picks · 445 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 331 bans
Weaver
386 picks · 822 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 878 bans
Phoenix
359 picks · 721 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
332 picks · 491 bans
Dragon Knight
296 picks · 543 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% SF Pos 4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% SF Pos 4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:36
SF Pos 4 66%MANTA Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on SF Pos 4 — the game was taken by SF Pos 4 in 36:58.
Game 2prediction missed50:33
SF Pos 4 66%MANTA Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on SF Pos 4 — the game was taken by MANTA Esports in 1:04:48.
Game 3prediction correct15:38
SF Pos 4 66%MANTA Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on SF Pos 4 — the game was taken by SF Pos 4 in 41:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteSF Pos 4 · 66%
Series resultSF Pos 4 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3