PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MerkurX Teamwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Elderlyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MerkurX Team
No games played over 6 months.
Elderly
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
408 picks · 441 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 320 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 874 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 717 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 510 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% MerkurX Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Elderly
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:36
MerkurX Team 43%Elderly 57%
The model gave 57% on Elderly — the game was taken by MerkurX Team in 26:37.
Game 2prediction missed47:36
MerkurX Team 43%Elderly 57%
The model gave 57% on Elderly — the game was taken by MerkurX Team in 39:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteElderly · 57%
Series resultMerkurX Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2