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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 6 games
17%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Jeezy · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
ArrOw · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
33%
Sven
Sven
layme · 3 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
0%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
63%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
408 picks · 441 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 320 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
381 picks · 874 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 717 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 510 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 484 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 536 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength64% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:44
Winter Bear 31%Natus Vincere Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 26:56.
Game 2prediction missed39:28
Winter Bear 31%Natus Vincere Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 42:56.
Game 3prediction missed41:21
Winter Bear 31%Natus Vincere Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 34:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 69%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3