PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Hryvniawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quantum Team
No games played over 6 months.
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
408 picks · 438 bans
Rubick
407 picks · 319 bans
Weaver
389 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 874 bans
Phoenix
361 picks · 717 bans
Pangolier
339 picks · 506 bans
Clockwerk
336 picks · 483 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 533 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Quantum Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Hryvnia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:6
Quantum Team 37%Team Hryvnia 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 22:47.
Game 2prediction correct44:6
Quantum Team 37%Team Hryvnia 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 19:04.
Game 3prediction correct25:49
Quantum Team 37%Team Hryvnia 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Hryvnia — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 31:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Hryvnia · 63%
Series resultTeam Hryvnia 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3